Going on Record…

Well, the fact that there are ten Best Picture nominees and I wanted to wait until I saw the Shorts before I said anything, I’m cutting my predictions post pretty close. So this won’t be nuthin’ fancy, just lunchpail work. But here goes.

BEST PICTURE:

The Hurt Locker
A Serious Man
An Education
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up
Up in the Air

I was leaning toward Avatar, but then I learned that the way the votes work this year, the second vote choice matters a whole lot. Remember how I predicted that Hillary Clinton would get third in the Iowa Caucuses? Probably not, this blog didn’t exist then. But I did, and it was because she wasn’t really anyone’s second choice. She was either first or, like, fourth. Same deal is going on here, if a voter’s first choice doesn’t get enough votes to be viable, that choice gets eliminated from contention, and the second choice becomes the new vote. I suspect that Avatar is not the second choice of a lot of people. I think The Hurt Locker probably is.

BEST ACTRESS:
Gabourey Sidibe
Sandra Bullock
Helen Mirren
Carey Mulligan
Meryl Streep

Like I said last year, if I’m going to beat out all the experts, I have to pull a huge upset with my guesses. This is a really silly choice, but what they heck. Everyone says this one comes down to Bullock and Streep. Bullock will probably win this award. I thought Streep was fantastic. But I want a huge upset! And I just watched Precious the other night, so Sidibe is fresh in my memory. Also, she was incredible.

BEST ACTOR:
Jeff Bridges
George Clooney
Colin Firth
Morgan Freeman
Jeremy Renner

Bridges all the way. And he deserves it.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Mo’Nique
Penelope Cruz
Vera Farmiga
Maggie Gyllenhaal
Anna Kendrick

Mo’Nique was devastating, and everyone knows this was the best performance of any kind this year. Cake walk.

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Christoph Waltz
Matt Damon
Woody Harrelson
Christopher Plummer
Stanley Tucci

Not a lot of drama here, either. Best part of Inglourious Basterds. And there were a lot of good things about that movie. Cake, uh, waltz (yeah! I went there!).

DIRECTOR:
James Cameron
Kathryn Bigelow
Lee Daniels
Jason Reitman
Quentin Tarantino

I would very much prefer Bigelow, but I suspect Cameron wins for his blockbuster cred. Bleah.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Inglourious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up

The other best thing about the movie. That opening scene is ridiculous.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Up in the Air
District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious

Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult. Not sure who’s gonna win this one. I thought In the Loop was easily the best written of the nominees, but it’s the only one not nominated for picture. Wild-ass guess here.

ANIMATED FEATURE:
Up
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells

I think this one might depend on how the voting works. If the voters don’t have to have seen every movie, then Up probably takes it (though I prefer Mr. Fox… even though I really loved Up). If the voters have to see everything before voting, then look for The Secret of Kells. I have no idea what it is, but neither does anyone else, and it still got a nomination, so it must be pretty damned good.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
A Prophet
Ajami
The Milk of Sorrow
The Secret in Their Eyes
The White Ribbon

I think Haneke is probably too challenging for everyone, so that probably takes The White Ribbon out. Oscar voters aren’t that edgy, still. Since I haven’t seen any of them, I’ll go for the other one getting all the acclaim, A Prophet. Entertainment Weekly says it’ll be The Secret in Their Eyes. Meh.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
The Cove
Burma VJ
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America
Which Way Home

Again, tough to do without seeing any of them.

EDITING:
The Hurt Locker
Avatar
District 9
Inglourious Basterds
Precious

Avatar will probably win, though it’s about a zilly years too long. But people notice flashy stuff and don’t really think about that.

ART DIRECTION:
Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Don’t count out that Victorian-era stuff. Especially when it’s about Victoria.

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Hurt Locker
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

Since everything was computer generated in Avatar, I hope they don’t go for that one. Even if I’m wrong about that.

ORIGINAL SCORE:
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up

Hoping the voters heard the same thing I did.

ORIGINAL SONG:
Crazy Heart
The Princess and the Frog (x3)
Nine

I’m not picking against T-Bone Burnett.

COSTUME DESIGN:
The Young Victoria
Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine

I learned my lesson last year, don’t bet against the Victorians.

MAKEUP:
Star Trek
Il Divo
The Young Victoria

Hell if I know. Go for the aliens.

VISUAL EFFECTS:
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

Um, yeah.

SOUND EDITING:
The Hurt Locker
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up

The sound was incredible in The Hurt Locker. Probably will go to Avatar, too.

SOUND MIXING:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers II

Go the other way this time. But root for Transformers! Cause that would be funny.

LIVE ACTION SHORT:
The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tenants

Tough call for me between Miracle Fish and The Door. I chose the more dramatic one, not that Miracle Fish is a laff riot.

ANIMATED SHORT:
A Matter of Loaf and Death
French Roast
Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
The Lady and the Reaper
Logorama

Gotta work pretty hard to beat Wallace and Gromit. Don’t see it happening. Logorama is pretty funny, but a one-trick pony.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Rabbit a la Berlin
China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: The Closing of a GM Plant
Music By Prudence

Rabbit was the only one that seemed to bring something new to the table. I could see The Last Truck pulling this out. The makers of Campaign decided it wasn’t appropriate to screen their movie for us normal people.

Is that it? I think that’s it. Come back at 7:30 CST, we’ll get the liveblog going.